Educational Rights & Costs: "Debate will continue!" Like health care & fed. budgets?

 #vwwt2000 PREDICTION #20 of 20 from year 2000  

Educational Rights and Educational Costs
Debate will continue on how much education, of what kind, for whom. As with health care, the notions of a citizen’s educational rights and the locus of decision making about them will be difficult to resolve. Human society will recognize that the costs of the most effective kinds of education (like the costs of much of the most effective kinds of health care) will continue to rise faster than the costs of food, clothing, and housing. Quality of life will depend on access to better quality education and health care for all. [Will enough world resources be generated and allocated to provide everyone with adequate food, health care, shelter, clothing, and education? How will “adequate” be defined?]

[UPDATE  Sure, the "debate continues".  But what a couple of understatements I made in 2000!  

• "citizen’s educational rights and the locus of decision making about them will be difficult to resolve"

• "the costs of the most effective kinds of education (like the costs of much of the most effective kinds of health care) will continue to rise faster than the costs of food, clothing, and housing."

2011 COLLISION:  REAL IMPROVEMENTS, REAL COSTS, UNREAL EXPECTATIONS   Today July 13, 2011! the  United States government cannot resolve its own budgetary crisis or agree on how this extraordinarily wealthy country can escape or end the worldwide economic recession.  In part, we cannot face the facts of rising real costs associated with making unprecedented real improvements in health care and in higher education because we cannot disentangle the real and desirable cost increases from those caused by growing administrative complexity and rising/widening unrealistic expectations.  See Necessity is the Mother of Self-Deception.]

- 20th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Unequal Access to Info Tech Painfully Persists - Equity, Disabilities, Information Literacy

Bridging Digital Divide

#vwwt2000 PREDICTION #19 OF 20 from year 2000

Access, Disabilities, and Information Literacy
Access to computers, related information resources, and “information literacy” will become higher societal priorities. More educational institutions will recognize and respond to the need to provide such equitable access for all --- regardless of wealth or disabilities. Many colleges and universities will develop programs for defining and regularly revising access and information literacy goals; and for helping students, faculty, administration, and staff to achieve them. Eventually, colleges and universities may only need to offer guidelines about the expected information literacy competencies of entering students, and to provide some modest remedial services for the few who require them.

[UPDATE  Not even close!   Still waiting!  
The "Digital Divide" and "Information Literacy" are still painfully important challenges in 2011, even as they elude precise definitions.  In 2000, I didn't do any better than anyone else anticipating the changing roles of the Internet, cell phones, and new mobile devices - especially the iPhone and iPod and their emerging competitors.  Nor did we foresee the possibilities of "social networking media" such as Facebook and Twitter and information gateways such as Google and Wikipedia.  


Unequal access persists as a painfully familiar increasingly important challenge.  
But in 2011 the most important UNANTICIPATED challenge is the overabundance of online information and tools available to those who DO have adequate access and the ability to evaluate and manage these resources.]

- 19th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Adjuncts Become More Important [At least more widely used; but "get no respect"?]

"I get no respect"

#vwwt2000 PREDICTION #18 OF 20 from year 2000 
Adjuncts Become More Important

Adjunct faculty members, especially retirees from first careers, will continue to become a growing part of the teaching faculty at most colleges – both in classrooms and online. Support services for adjuncts will become more common and necessary. Part-time teaching may prove among the most attractive and self-respect-enhancing new retirement options.


See: Adjunct Faculty:  Conflicting Trends? More Part-Time Teachers vs. Delayed Retirements 1995-20??  

[UPDATE 2011:  STILL WAITING! 
I'm still waiting for the increases in support services for adjuncts commensurate with their numbers and the extent to which undergraduate programs rely on them.  I'm also still waiting for the "self-respect-enhancing new retirement options"! 

In year 2000, along with many others, I noticed the increasing role of part-time faculty in higher education instruction.  However, I did NOT anticipate the current economic recession and how it would press so many "senior" faculty members to delay their retirement and how that might change the balance of part-time and full-time teachers encountered by most undergraduate students.]

- 18th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Academic Freedom Redefined? Who "owns the means of production" in education?

#vwwt2000 PREDICTION #17 OF 20 from year 2000

"Kali, Avatar of the eBook"

Who decides what is taught?  How and when?

PREDICTION 17:  Academic Freedom Redefined

As faculty and student roles shift and new educational resources are integrated, academic freedom and faculty leadership will remain highly valued; but they may be redefined. Many faculty members will embrace greater responsibility for identifying, selecting, and implementing pedagogical options – and supportive applications of technology.

Still likely?
In year 2000 I didn't anticipate the VARIETY and AVAILABILITY of information resources, information tools, and portable/mobile digital devices that would become irresistible to most students and many teachers by 2011.   Nor did I anticipate how such resources, tools, and devices could not be owned or controlled by any college or university.  Nor the continuing fluidity of "textbooks":  Who controls them?  How are they "published"? How are they used by students?
See Parody Alternatives to Traditional Textbooks, Courses, Degrees from Mental_Floss

- 17th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

VALUE RISING: Purposeful Combinations of Tech/Pedagogy/Content & HUMAN MOMENTS

Hands Touching; Technology for Sharing

 #vwwt2000 PREDICTION #16 OF 20 from year 2000

Better Understanding of Face-to-Face Communication and Other Teaching/Learning Options


NOTE:  Now, in 2011, I believe the last 4 of these 20 predictions - beginning with this one - have become even more important.  But they face tougher challenges today than I anticipated in 2000.  I am still hopeful.


Educators, corporate leaders, and many others (religious leaders? entertainers?) will learn to take greater advantage of the unique possibilities of face-to-face communications. They will do so in conjunction with the invention of new ways of combining applications of technology, pedagogical options, content, and purposes. They will discover the new power of matching all of these with the different capabilities and styles of individual learners, individual teachers, and groups of both. Hallowell's "human moments" [see Connect by Edward Hallowell] in which two human beings talk AND LISTEN to each other in the same place at the same time will be more highly valued and sought more intentionally and frequently.

- 16th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

More Speech, Recordings on the Web - Helpful, Hateful, Educational?

Spy Gear: CURRENT, PUBLIC, COMMERCIAL!

#vwwt2000 PREDICTION #15 OF 20 from year 2000

Human speech on the Web – recorded or delivered live -- will take a central role in many kinds of education. It will become easy for faculty members and students to add recordings of their own speech to text and other information media. Voice recognition software may dramatically alter human-computer interaction and all related communications/education activities; probably NOT by eliminating keyboards, but by adding another attractive mode for controlling technology and entering and editing text.
Still likely?


UPDATE
In year 2000 I didn't anticipate the VARIETY, AVAILABILITY, and CAPABILITIES of portable/mobile digital devices in 2011. Moore's Law in action!  
THE GOOD NEWS:  Unassisted non-techies can almost produce and publish their own audio and video recordings.  They can also ALMOST manage many devices and produce text using only their own voices.  And the continuing accuracy of Moore's Law promises easier, cheaper, faster, more accurate versions of these tools, with smart phones and iPads leading the way.
THE BAD NEWS:  No matter where you are, no matter what you're doing, someone might record and publish!  See "Sousveillance" "Brin’s corollary to Moore’s Law” Cameras vs. Authority/Privacy?
- 15th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Student Technology Assistants [& Other Roles for Students]

#vwwt2000 Predctn14PREDICTION #14 OF 20 from year 2000  

STA Wildlife video project - URI

Student Technology Assistants

To meet the growing need for academic support services, more colleges and universities will take advantage of one of their unique resources – the students. They will move beyond current programs of using students for clerical help in the library and as room monitors in computer labs. They will provide more training for these student assistants, give them opportunities for more technologically and consultatively challenging work, and promote some to positions of responsibility for supervising and training their peers. Many students, especially those who are not pursuing technology-focused careers, will find the training and experience of these roles a major asset in preparing for most jobs or further study as the value of technology skills continues to increase in most fields.Still likely? 

[The use of Student Technology Assistants has been growing, but much more slowly and involving many fewer students than I expected and hoped in year 2000.  The TLT Group has encouraged, enabled, and collaborated with leaders in this "movement" since 1997.]

More resources about STA programs - recently active programs, etc.  

- 14th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Extend, Coordinate, and/or Outsource Academic Support Services - Harder Today than Y2K!

#vwwt2000 Predctn13

PREDICTION #13 OF 20 from year 2000
Still likely?
Extend, Coordinate, and/or Outsource Academic Support Services

More colleges and universities will form local centers and/or related institutional Web-based directories, forums, and services to coordinate the work of existing academic support services, encourage the development of new combinations of those services, and make it easier for faculty and students to find and use those services. More institutions will also “outsource” some technology and other academic support services and/or develop inter-institutional collaborations for more cost-effective delivery of those services. Other new commercial services may provide “academic” support services directly to faculty members or students – with or without the involvement of the colleges or universities in which those learners and teachers do their work. This may be a new role for textbook publishers and other companies in education-related industries.

- 13th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

New Faculty Responsibilities, Increasing Workload for All

#vwwt2000 PREDICTION #12 OF 20 from year 2000 
Still likely?
New Faculty Responsibilities, Increasing Workload for All

See also: Overloaditorium

More faculty members will decide that their professional responsibilities include keeping current with the knowledge accumulating in their fields, pedagogical options, and supportive technology applications. The workload for faculty, academic support professionals, and academic administrators will continue to increase. 

[In year 2000 I didn't anticipate the VARIETY of portable/mobile digital devices that would be in common use by 2011.]


See also:

“I’ve got to go home; I really need to get some work done."
and see:  Overloaditorium

Our Motto: If working 24 hours a day isn't enough, you have to work nights. 

- James Moss, 1985, USNA
Our Challenge: TMI/TMO/TLT/TL$

Too Much Information / Too Many Options / Too Little Time / Too Little Money!

- Steven W. Gilbert, Founding President, TLT Group
You don't have time for this! Or anything else! ...but...:
and see:   "Overload Syndrome"

- 12th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Verbatim Prediction from 2000 Applies in 2011: Shifting Relations Among Courses, Textbooks, Web, Money, Libraries #vwwt2000

The economics of higher education are [STILL!] shifting in unpredictable ways.   


The clear old line between students’ paying tuition for courses and paying fees for course-related learning materials (books, etc.) is  [STILL!] rapidly blurring.  


 [STILL!] More faculty members are assigning instructional materials that students can find on the Web, more students resist buying required textbooks, and more students are comfortable going to the Web instead of to the library for reserved readings.  


Consequently, new financial relationships are  [STILL!] developing among students, faculty, publishers, bookstores, libraries, and colleges.  The publishers and bookstore managers are  [STILL!] especially eager to understand or create viable new business models.  Some of these might give a more significant role to faculty members who develop course-related “online” materials and find new ways of collecting fees from students or their colleges/universities.


- from Observations Section of "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Widening Expectation-Resource Gap

Widening Gap - Book

But demand for support services less "respectable"? #vwwt2000 Predctn11


Due to cuts in budget, full-time staff, increasing workloads?

PREDICTION #11 OF 20 from year 2000
Still likely?

11.Widening Expectation-Resource Gap

At most educational institutions, the gap between expectations and resources will continue to widen (with respect to the improvement of teaching and learning with technology). The need for academic support services will continue to grow faster than the supply. The competition from industry to hire technical support professionals will become more intense.

Both learners and teachers will need the services of librarians more frequently and extensively so long as sources of information continue to proliferate. Demand will continue to increase for the services of faculty development professionals, instructional design specialists, and other pedagogical experts (as a consequence of the increasing number of faculty members who want to use new applications of technology in their teaching).

Flexible Space/Schedule Still High Priorities for Higher Ed?

Vs. Overload, Career Risks, Financial Fears? #vwwt2000 Predctn10
PREDICTION #10 OF 20 from year 2000
Still likely?
More colleges and universities will recognize the need to plan for and institutionalize a process for change, and to accept the increased risk of failure along with the exciting prospects of new success. This attitude may be instigated by, but not limited to, the increasing importance and more widespread use of information technology in teaching, learning, and research. To institutionalize change, colleges and universities will:

• Develop new administrative units to support changes in teaching and learning. 
• Provide incentives and reduce obstacles for faculty members to take risks in trying to find, develop, and use combinations of technology, pedagogy, and content. 
• Make it easier for faculty, students, and academic support professionals to reconfigure their schedules and the spaces in which they work together. 
• Do so by making flexibility a high priority when retrofitting classrooms, renovating old buildings or designing new ones, and modifying the system for scheduling course activities.

[In year 2000 I didn't anticipate the extent of the shifts in workload (more for fulltime tenure-track faculty;  more use of adjuncts) and the leap in complexity of providing guidance and support for faculty and students who have so many tech options OUTSIDE the control of the college or university by 2011. - Steve Gilbert June, 2011]
- 10th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

UNCOMFORTABLY Increasing $ACADEMIC info Tech? More/less "Shared governance"?

Academic IT "out of control"? #vwwt2000 Predctn9 

Edsels photo: Symbol Strategic Tech Investments?
 t.co/hnFFoJf  58 and 59 edsels
for sale  via @americanlisted

PREDICTION #9 OF 20 from year 2000  Still likely?

Increase Technology Investments; Forums for Exploration, Planning, Advice

Presidents, boards, and other academic leaders will continue to increase institutional resource allocations for academic uses of information technology – and to be uncomfortable about doing so. Consequently, more colleges and universities will form internal groups representing diverse constituencies (faculty, academic support professionals, administrators, students, …) and provide them with a forum to:

• Explore and develop ways of improving teaching and learning – with technology. 
• Plan for the continuing integration of new technology applications into all scholarly work and for the institutionalization of change. 
• Offer academic leaders the best advice and help them shape related policies and decisions. 

[These groups are like TLTRs -- Teaching, Learning, and Technology Roundtables.]
See also:   TMI/TMO/TLT/TL$   & Why TLT Roundtables are coming back: CRISIS...LURCH...TLTR2!

[In 2000, I didn't anticipate the impact of the current economic recession, the increasing pressure to use technology to increase student/faculty ratio, the increasing workload for full-time faculty, and the increasing ACADEMIC role of technology neither owned nor controlled by the institution. - Steve Gilbert, 2011]

- 7th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Widespread PROOF-LESS Adoption of SOME Educ Uses of Tech

e.g., “Low-Threshold” apps: email, wordprocessing, Google, #vwwt2000 Predctn8

PREDICTION #8 OF 20 from year 2000
Still likely?
No Proof, But Widespread Adoption of Email, Web, and Instructional Combinations
No conclusive proof of the general educational superiority of any technology application will emerge. Evaluation and assessment activities will be used more frequently to improve the results of continuing investments of time, money, and other resources in educational uses of technology. However, some combinations of technology application, teaching/learning approach, and subject matter content will be widely adopted because they are so easily implemented, reasonably priced, and OBVIOUSLY effective in achieving important educational goals. Debate about these combinations, if it arises at all, will be brief and inconsequential. For example, the vast majority of faculty members will decide to use electronic mail and the World Wide Web in their scholarly work – including teaching – without the benefit of convincing evaluative studies.

- 8th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Distance Education and Online Education Mix with Face-to-Face

More varied learning, teaching structures.
#vwwt2000 Predctn7

PREDICTION #7 OF 20 from year 2000
Still likely?

Mixtures of online and face-to-face education will become more common than programs that offer either one alone. The most widely used patterns will be:

• Courses in which students meet face-to-face with each other and the teacher(s) some of the time and in which they are also assigned combinations of group work and independent work including a variety of media and tasks; e.g., electronic mail, the Web, new technology applications, books, writing papers, science labs, etc. 
• Programs or sequences of courses, in which some of the courses include regularly scheduled face-to-face group meetings of students with faculty, and some of the courses do not. The latter may be completely “distant” and asynchronous, or may include some live communications at a distance.

See also: "Hybrids always win!" in "Face-to-Face vs. Online: Over-Zealous Extremophiles vs. Hyper-Romantic Luddites"

- 7th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Image: Photo of sphinx

Fully Asynchronous “Distance Education” Becomes More Creditable

 - But Not Preferable.  iPads?
#vwwt2000 Predctn6

PREDICTION #6 OF 20 from year 2000
Still likely?

Fully asynchronous “distance education” courses, especially those that require no special meeting space, will become more credible and attractive -- and will be used for many kinds of instruction. Many people will welcome supplementary educational ATMs [Automatic Teaching Machines?] into their homes and offices. Unlike the role of ATMs in banking, these educational ATMs will not be viewed as the preferred alternatives for most kinds of traditional education.

["Supplementary Educational ATMs" = iPads?   In year 2000 I didn't anticipate the VARIETY of portable/mobile digital devices that would be in common use by 2011.  Seems that many of these are serving - to some extent - as "learning machines."  Also seems that I did not anticipate the growing pressure for identifying most educational activities and resources with "learning" rather than "teaching."]

- 6th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Higher Ed Courses Enhanced - Not Replaced - by New Tech Apps

More new buildings open than old ones close. #vwwt2000 Predctn5  

PREDICTION #5 OF 20 from year 2000
Still likely?

New applications of technology, that appear to offer the potential for improving teaching and learning, will continue to arrive at an accelerating pace; but the dominant model for using technology in higher education will continue to be the enhancement of traditional classroom-based courses. More new buildings will be opened on higher education campuses than will be closed.

See also: "Hybrids always win!" in  "Face-to-Face vs. Online: Over-Zealous Extremophiles vs. Hyper-Romantic Luddites"

- 5th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full articleImage: "Construction on campus of Xavier University, New Orleans" 

INCREASING VARIETY IN EDUCATION

Needs abilities goals programs institutions AND publishing/media/tech options #vwwt2000 Predctn4

Teachers, learners, and other human beings will continue to have a remarkable range of educational needs, abilities, and goals. The variety of educational programs and institutions in the United States will increase, even as consolidation continues in closely related industries (e.g., publishing, communications media).
- 4th of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Image:  "U.S. Navy photo by Journalist 1st Class Brandan W. Schulze (RELEASED)  Gulf of Mexico (Aug. 4, 2005) -

Moore's Law BOTH Prescient AND Prescriptive

Digital device performance doubles every 1-2 years since 1965! Predctn3 #vwwt2000

See:  Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation - Available free online as eBook
But, there is still "No 'Moore’s Law' for Learning!" And there won't be.
See 3rd of 20 predictions from  "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006

"The rule of thumb known as Moore's Law has many versions and variations, but they all amount to roughly the same thing: The performance of digital computers doubles every year or two. The steady doubling and redoubling has been going on for more than 40 years, long enough that it has come to seem a normal and unremarkable fact of life; yet such sustained exponential growth is unmatched and unprecedented any­where else in economics or technology. And it's not over yet."

- excerpt above from "Semiconductor Real Estate" by Brian Hayes, in March-April 2008 issue of American Scientist; a review of the book Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation. Edited by David C. Brock. x + 122 pp. Chemical Heritage Press, 2006.

No “Moore’s Law” for Learning!

No new app or educational approach will double the speed of human learning -ever. Predctn3 #vwwt2000

More valuable combinations of technology and pedagogy will be developed and both the speed and effectiveness of education in many fields will increase significantly, but not dramatically - not exponentially.  Not like Moore's Law. No “Moore’s Law” for learning will emerge...ever.

- 3rd of 20 predictions from "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006, First version published via AAHESGIT listserv January, 2000; PDF of full article

Image: Image representing 3-D graphic of exponential implications of Moore's Law by Jürgen Mantzke, Creative Director/Partner at LBxJournal.com, jurgen@enfineitz.com
http://enfineitz.com/wp/about/
http://enfineitz.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/info_graphics_12.jpg