Monday, June 13, 2011

Moore's Law BOTH Prescient AND Prescriptive


Digital device performance doubles every 1-2 years since 1965! Predctn3 #vwwt2000

See:  Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation - Available free online as eBook
But, there is still "No 'Moore’s Law' for Learning!" And there won't be.
See 3rd of 20 predictions from  "A New Vision Worth Working Toward: Connected Education and Collaborative Change," Steven W. Gilbert, 2000-2006
"The rule of thumb known as Moore's Law has many versions and variations, but they all amount to roughly the same thing: The performance of digital computers doubles every year or two. The steady doubling and redoubling has been going on for more than 40 years, long enough that it has come to seem a normal and unremarkable fact of life; yet such sustained exponential growth is unmatched and unprecedented any­where else in economics or technology. And it's not over yet."
- excerpt above from "Semiconductor Real Estate" by Brian Hayes, in March-April 2008 issue of American Scientist; a review of the book Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation. Edited by David C. Brock. x + 122 pp. Chemical Heritage Press, 2006.

"Gordon Moore made a prediction forty years ago that was partly prescient and partly prescriptive. The fulfillment of his prediction has restructured the global nature of human society, the way we work, outsource, wage war, communicate, politicize, socialize, and even love. What a treat, then, to have in a single volume both his original publication and his analysis forty years later of how the fulfillment came about." —Rodney Brooks, Director, MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory" 
"Looking back today, Moore and other information revolution pioneers, who contributed to this clearly written volume, realize that Moore's law applies not simply to electronics but generally to technological change in our era." —Thomas Hughes, Author of 'Human-Built World' and 'American Genesis'
Above 2 paragraphs are from "endorsements" section of website for book Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation. Edited by David C. Brock. x + 122 pp. Chemical Heritage Press, 2006.


Image: 
[CC-BY-1.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/1.0)], via Wikimedia CommonsImage: "Moore's Law, The Fifth Paradigm." Date 19:37, 5 July 2005 (UTC) Source 
en:Image:PPTMooresLawai.jpg Author Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil Technologies, Inc.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c5/PPTMooresLawai.jpg/240px-PPTMooresLawai.jpg 

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